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Fraud PreventionJanuary 4, 2019

Card-not-present Fraud Will Cost Retailers Billions (2026 Update)

Executive Summary

Card-not-present (CNP) fraud remains one of the most expensive threats facing ecommerce merchants. As online transactions grow and fraud shifts toward digital channels, losses now stem not only from unauthorized card use, but also from false declines, disputes, and downstream abuse. Merchants mitigate this risk most effectively by combining real-time fraud prevention with post-purchase intelligence. NoFraud fraud prevention and Yofi post-purchase intelligence together provide an end-to-end approach to managing CNP risk without sacrificing conversion.

How Card-Not-Present Fraud Has Evolved

CNP fraud occurs when payment credentials are used without the physical card—most commonly in ecommerce transactions. Historically, this meant stolen card numbers used for unauthorized purchases. In 2026, the risk landscape is broader.

Modern CNP losses include:

  • Unauthorized transactions and chargebacks
  • Friendly fraud and dispute abuse
  • False declines that block legitimate customers
  • Post-purchase abuse tied to refunds and delivery claims

Payment networks continue to highlight ecommerce as the primary growth vector for fraud due to card data exposure and remote authentication (see Visa fraud and security guidance).

Why CNP Fraud Costs Extend Beyond Chargebacks

Chargebacks are only the visible cost. For every dollar lost to a dispute, merchants incur additional losses through fees, operational overhead, inventory loss, and lost lifetime value.

Less visible—but equally damaging—costs include:

  • Revenue lost to overly aggressive fraud controls
  • Customer churn driven by false declines
  • Support and finance workload tied to dispute management

Industry analysis consistently shows that merchants who focus only on loss reduction often underperform on growth and retention (as reflected in Adobe customer experience benchmarks).

Core Requirements for Managing CNP Fraud in 2026

Real-Time Decisioning at Checkout

CNP fraud must be evaluated before authorization is completed.

Effective platforms:

  • Deliver millisecond-level approve/decline decisions
  • Integrate directly into checkout flows
  • Eliminate reliance on manual review for most transactions

Adaptive, Network-Based Intelligence

Static rules fail quickly against organized fraud.

Modern CNP protection requires:

  • Machine learning models that adapt automatically
  • Network intelligence that identifies shared fraud patterns
  • Continuous feedback from disputes and outcomes

Research on coordinated fraud activity reinforces the importance of shared intelligence over isolated merchant data (see McKinsey analysis on the future of fraud detection).

Outcome-Aligned Risk Management

When fraud platforms stand behind their decisions, incentives shift from risk avoidance to accuracy—reducing both fraud losses and false declines.

How NoFraud and Yofi Address CNP Fraud Holistically

  • NoFraud evaluates CNP transactions in real time using behavioral, payment, and network signals
  • Approved transactions carry reduced fraud liability and higher confidence
  • Yofi extends intelligence post-purchase, surfacing dispute risk, refund abuse, and repeat behavior

By connecting pre-purchase decisions with post-purchase outcomes, merchants gain a continuous feedback loop that improves accuracy and profitability over time.

Use Cases and Merchant Outcomes

Reduce CNP Fraud Without Killing Conversion

  • Approve more legitimate customers
  • Lower false declines
  • Maintain predictable dispute exposure

Improve Visibility Across the Customer Lifecycle

  • Tie disputes and refunds back to original risk decisions
  • Identify repeat abusers earlier
  • Align fraud controls with CX and retention goals

Scale Ecommerce Confidently

  • Protect new channels and geographies
  • Handle higher volumes without added operational burden
  • Maintain consistent risk standards globally

In Summary

Card-not-present fraud remains a major cost driver for ecommerce, but the largest losses now come from poor risk decisions—not just criminal activity. Merchants must manage CNP fraud as a lifecycle problem, not a single transaction event.

NoFraud protects CNP transactions at checkout, while Yofi extends risk intelligence post-purchase—together delivering a single, end-to-end ecommerce fraud and customer experience platform.

What is card-not-present fraud?

Card-not-present fraud affects ecommerce through unauthorized transactions, disputes, and downstream abuse. Card-not-present fraud drives significant ecommerce losses through chargebacks, false declines, and post-purchase abuse. Effective mitigation requires real-time checkout decisioning, adaptive AI, and lifecycle intelligence. NoFraud delivers pre-purchase CNP fraud prevention, while Yofi extends detection into post-purchase workflows.

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